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Power markets tightened fast on Monday after wind generation slumped, lifting some evening quarter-hour slots beyond €600 per megawatt-hour. For Monday delivery, France's day-ahead price settled at €334.12 per megawatt-hour on the Epex Spot SE platform, reaching a level not seen since December 2022, while Germany's day-ahead cleared at €345.64.
The UK grid operator warned of tight conditions Monday morning and sought extra supply from the market, then withdrew the alert. ENTSO-E data show gas-fired generation in Germany at its highest level since January.
Forecasters expect a slow-moving system of still, overcast weather to suppress renewable output through Wednesday across some of Europe's biggest power markets. The lull looks most acute in Germany, the UK and the Benelux countries.
Natural gas prices are elevated this year, and gas-fired units frequently determine the market-clearing price for electricity. That bites during cold, windless stretches known in German as Dunkelflaute, when renewables fade and pricier fossil-fuel units fill the gap. "These kind of high prices can not only be explained by elevated gas prices but show there is a certain scarcity in the system," said Kpler energy analyst Alessandro Armenia, who said such bouts will probably return at least until mid-January.
Cooling weather could add more strain. MetDesk meteorologist Ben Davis expects temperatures to run 1C-3C below normal this week, a setup that lifts heating demand. Energy Aspects also flags below-average hydro after a dry year and maintenance that is limiting French nuclear capacity.
A dunkelflaute of three days in Germany 2023. Source: Wikipedia